After a certain age, every one of us remembers the days of our youth. We look back on those days now and realize just how good we had it- well, most of I assume. We all remember being young and uttering the phrase "I can't wait until I grow up", and now that we look back we wonder why we were in such a hurry. Well, that rush to grow up isn't solely a desire of children. Soon-to-be-professional athlete Johnny Football is no longer a child but he is all too eager to grow up. The young QB Johnny Manziel, from Texas A&M, has tweeted in the past weeks his desire to leave college life behind and join the ranks of the pros. This is largely in part because of the media (and campus) circus that follows him around now that he's hit the big-time. Perhaps he has forgotten that the reason for all this fuss is largely his own doing because he makes a spectacle of himself. In my opinion, Manziel should rethink his stance on the NFL because, at the moment, his pro prospects just aren't that good, for several key reasons.
The first reason being that there are significant questions about his arm strength. The offense that Manziel anchors for the Aggies isn't one predicated on driving the ball deep down the field. Kevin Sumlin's offense relies much more on quick drops and firing the ball out to a back or receiver running a short to intermediate route. While arm strength and accuracy down field are certainly things that can be worked on at the pro level with coaching and a proper training and exercise regimen (see: Aaron Rodgers), it's a skill that the NFL scouts are going to want to see from Manziel before anyone thinks about spending a high draft choice on the kid.
The next reason is, oddly enough, a by-product of one of Manziel's biggest strengths, his athleticism. The combination of Manziel being such a talented athlete and Sumlin's offense has lead to Manziel not being great at going through his read progressions. He has a tendency to look to his primary target, and if he isn't open, instead of finding the second or third option, making something happen with his legs. This is a fine and effective strategy for a college quarterback, but it's going to get him hurt at the next level. The linebackers are much bigger and much faster than those he faces, even in the vaunted SEC. If Manziel wants to survive in the NFL, much less become a star in it, he's going to need to learn how to effectively run an offense from the pocket, only running when he has run out of options. Not as the second option.
The third reason is he doesn't seem to have any sort of pocket awareness. Far too often he is seen breaking the pocket and making something happen with his legs, even when there was a clear pocket from which to throw and minimal pressure around him. Part of this is the style of offense that Manziel plays in, but I think that it's more his personal mentality at this point. He knows that he's a better athlete than most of the guys on the field, and he relies heavily upon that instead of trusting his ability to beat the defense with his arm. To me, that shows that he doesn't trust in his abilities as a pocket passer. While non-traditional quarterbacks are seeing a rise in popularity due to the Michael Vick's and RG3's of the world, the fact remains that only "pocket-passers" have had ultimate success in the NFL. Running around making plays with your legs is nice, but it's the quarterbacks who can stand in the pocket and make the big throws who win Super Bowls.
The final, and most unfortunate, reason that Manziel's prospects for the pro's don't look that good to me is his size. While being listed at A&M as being 6'1" 210 lbs, anyone who looks at the game tape and pays attention to Johnny Football can see that he is not what he's listed at. I think he's more like 5'10" 185 lbs. That kind of size would make him a success at the slot-receiver position, but the fact remains that no quarterback under 6' has ever had a large amount of success. It's entirely possible that guys like Russell Wilson (and maybe even Manziel himself) will go on to buck that trend and pave the way for the smaller quarterbacks to be given a serious look by NFL scouts, but we just aren't there yet. Wilson is only going into his second year, and his team didn't reach the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Until a short quarterback goes on to win a Super Bowl or two, they're never going to be looked at as a serious option for long-term success.
If Manziel can work on all of these (except for the height, there's nothing that can be done about that), then he may yet have a chance at being a high draft choice, but as of right now he still has a long way to go. He's only a sophomore, he has a lot left to learn, and the time to do it if he allows himself that opportunity. If there's one piece of advice that I could give to him, it would be this: "Slow down, sport. Enjoy the time you have here. You only get this opportunity once in your life, and it's only going to get harder from here. Stop making a spectacle of yourself, sit back, and enjoy what you have. You'll look back in a few years and wish you had."
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Friday, June 28, 2013
Sunday, May 26, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Defensive Backs
In today's installment of my blog, we come to the end of my preview of the 2014 NFL draft class. In my last preview, I'm going to talk about the top defensive backs who should be available. This class is, along with every level of the defense, a very strong class. It is comprised of four cornerbacks and one safety. Let's take a look.
1.) Bradley Roby, Ohio State University*. Roby is the very definition of a prototypical corner. At 5'11" and 190 lbs, Roby has the size necessary to come up to the line of scrimmage and play phyiscal, man coverage. With a 40 yard dash time of under 4.5, he also possesses the speed necessary to recover when beat or to make a play on the ball when in a zone scheme. In his two years as a starter for the Buckeyes, Roby has tallied 110 tackles, 17 passes broken up, five interceptions, six tackles for a loss and one sack. These numbers illustrate that Roby is an all-around corner, possessing the skills to not only be a great cover corner, but also an ability to come up and make a tackle in the run game or to blitz the quarterback if necessary. This versatility is why Roby is the top rated corner in this draft and should be a top 10 pick.
2.) Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon University*. Being only an inch shorter, the same weight, and running a significantly faster 40 time (4.39), it's hard for me not to put Ekpre-Olomu ahead of Roby for the top spot in this draft. His numbers would justify the switch too, with him notching 63 tackles, 16 passes defensed, six forced fumbles and four interceptions in his one season as a starter for the Ducks. The reason I have him here instead of ahead of Roby is that I feel like Roby is a better all-around corner. Ekpre-Olomu needs to work on his zone coverage skills along with working to be stronger and more physical, especially in run support. If he makes significant improvement to these aspects of his game, he could very well take the number 1 spot from Roby.
3.) Jason Verrett, Texas Christian University. I have Verrett rated higher than some other prognosticators (WalterFootball.com, for instance, has him rated their #9 corner), but I like what I have seen from the TCU product. He's got solid height at 5'10" and solid speed, running a sub 5-second 40 yard dash. He also has the production on the field to back up being ranked higher than 9, with 121 tackles, 20 passes broken up, seven interceptions, and a blocked kick. The issue with Verrett for me is his weight, he only weighs 175lbs. If he can get himself into the weight room and become a more physical presence to go along with his speed and instincts, he'll justify me having him in this slot. He is my sleeper at the position.
4.) Loucheiz Purifoy, University of Florida* Purifoy is undoubtedly the most physically gifted cornerback in this class. At 6'1" and 189lbs, Purifoy has nearly unprecedented size for the position, and with a 40 yard dash time of 4.42, he is also one of the fastest guys at the position. That combination gives me pause about having Purifoy so low on this list, but he doesn't have the production necessary for me to justify having him any higher. In his one year as a starter for the Gators, Purifoy amassed 51 tackles, five passes broken up and three forced fumbles. For a corner as physically gifted as Purifoy to not notch even one interception gives me reason to question whether or not he has the hands and ball skills necessary to justify being a top-flight corner.
5.) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, University of Alabama*. The first, and only, safety to crack my top 5, Clinton-Dix has had an impressive run for the Crimson Tide. In his one year as a starter, Clinton-Dix totaled 37 tackles, five interceptions, four passes broken up, and a forced fumble. That kind of production from a safety is a huge bonus for any defense. Clinton-Dix has wonderful ball skills at the safety position and plays very well in space as a roving defender. Now that Clinton-Dix is the main man in the Crimson Tide secondary, I expect him to show that his production isn't just a product of playing with other great defensive backs. I'm looking for a huge year from Clinton-Dix.
So folks, there you have it. My look into the 2014 NFL draft is officially complete. We'll have to wait until next May (the NFL draft is being moved back several weeks due to a scheduling conflict at Radio City Music Hall during the normal weekend, though there is a lot of talk that this may be a more permanent move in an effort to space out the NFL calendar more and make the league relevant in the month of May) to see if these predictions are anywhere close to coming to fruition. Until then, I had a lot of fun putting these articles together and I hope you had just as much fun reading them. I'm going to be off tomorrow for the Memorial Day holiday, regular posting will resume on Tuesday!
1.) Bradley Roby, Ohio State University*. Roby is the very definition of a prototypical corner. At 5'11" and 190 lbs, Roby has the size necessary to come up to the line of scrimmage and play phyiscal, man coverage. With a 40 yard dash time of under 4.5, he also possesses the speed necessary to recover when beat or to make a play on the ball when in a zone scheme. In his two years as a starter for the Buckeyes, Roby has tallied 110 tackles, 17 passes broken up, five interceptions, six tackles for a loss and one sack. These numbers illustrate that Roby is an all-around corner, possessing the skills to not only be a great cover corner, but also an ability to come up and make a tackle in the run game or to blitz the quarterback if necessary. This versatility is why Roby is the top rated corner in this draft and should be a top 10 pick.
2.) Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon University*. Being only an inch shorter, the same weight, and running a significantly faster 40 time (4.39), it's hard for me not to put Ekpre-Olomu ahead of Roby for the top spot in this draft. His numbers would justify the switch too, with him notching 63 tackles, 16 passes defensed, six forced fumbles and four interceptions in his one season as a starter for the Ducks. The reason I have him here instead of ahead of Roby is that I feel like Roby is a better all-around corner. Ekpre-Olomu needs to work on his zone coverage skills along with working to be stronger and more physical, especially in run support. If he makes significant improvement to these aspects of his game, he could very well take the number 1 spot from Roby.
3.) Jason Verrett, Texas Christian University. I have Verrett rated higher than some other prognosticators (WalterFootball.com, for instance, has him rated their #9 corner), but I like what I have seen from the TCU product. He's got solid height at 5'10" and solid speed, running a sub 5-second 40 yard dash. He also has the production on the field to back up being ranked higher than 9, with 121 tackles, 20 passes broken up, seven interceptions, and a blocked kick. The issue with Verrett for me is his weight, he only weighs 175lbs. If he can get himself into the weight room and become a more physical presence to go along with his speed and instincts, he'll justify me having him in this slot. He is my sleeper at the position.
4.) Loucheiz Purifoy, University of Florida* Purifoy is undoubtedly the most physically gifted cornerback in this class. At 6'1" and 189lbs, Purifoy has nearly unprecedented size for the position, and with a 40 yard dash time of 4.42, he is also one of the fastest guys at the position. That combination gives me pause about having Purifoy so low on this list, but he doesn't have the production necessary for me to justify having him any higher. In his one year as a starter for the Gators, Purifoy amassed 51 tackles, five passes broken up and three forced fumbles. For a corner as physically gifted as Purifoy to not notch even one interception gives me reason to question whether or not he has the hands and ball skills necessary to justify being a top-flight corner.
5.) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, University of Alabama*. The first, and only, safety to crack my top 5, Clinton-Dix has had an impressive run for the Crimson Tide. In his one year as a starter, Clinton-Dix totaled 37 tackles, five interceptions, four passes broken up, and a forced fumble. That kind of production from a safety is a huge bonus for any defense. Clinton-Dix has wonderful ball skills at the safety position and plays very well in space as a roving defender. Now that Clinton-Dix is the main man in the Crimson Tide secondary, I expect him to show that his production isn't just a product of playing with other great defensive backs. I'm looking for a huge year from Clinton-Dix.
So folks, there you have it. My look into the 2014 NFL draft is officially complete. We'll have to wait until next May (the NFL draft is being moved back several weeks due to a scheduling conflict at Radio City Music Hall during the normal weekend, though there is a lot of talk that this may be a more permanent move in an effort to space out the NFL calendar more and make the league relevant in the month of May) to see if these predictions are anywhere close to coming to fruition. Until then, I had a lot of fun putting these articles together and I hope you had just as much fun reading them. I'm going to be off tomorrow for the Memorial Day holiday, regular posting will resume on Tuesday!
Saturday, May 25, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Linebackers
Today's post (which should have been yesterday's, but life got in the way) will focus on the prospects who should be available at the linebacker position. This list will include both inside and outside linebackers, but not defensive ends who occasionally line up at outside linebacker. I wanted this list to be comprised of guys at their primary positions. So, with that said, let's take a look.
1.) Anthony Barr, University of California (Los Angeles). Barr had a standout season in 2012, his first at the linebacker position after playing his first two years at fullback. With 83 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, five passes batted and four forced fumbles, Barr had an absolutely monster season and was only out-performed in the sack department at his position by Jarvis Jones, who was a first round pick in this year's draft. If Barr is able to replicate his performance from last year, I fully expect to see him come off the board very early in the draft. With that kind of production consistently, he may find himself in the top 10.
2.) C.J. Mosely, University of Alabama. Every Dolphins fan cringes (at the very least) at the very mention of the name Nick Saban. And for good reason, the man left in a shady way that left a very sour taste in all of us fans' mouths. That being said, you have to recognize that the man has developed some serious talent in his time with the Crimson Tide. Mosely will be the latest in the long line of talented Tide players to make an impact at the next level. Mosely tallied 107 tackles, eight tackles for loss, four sacks, two interceptions, and a forced fumble last season. Mosely's real value is his skill in pass coverage, he has the speed and agility necessary to cover a back out in the flat or to cover a tight end down the seam, which will surely make him rise up teams draft board into the top twenty picks of the first round.
3.) Kyle Van Noy, Brigham Young University. Overshadowed by the meteoric rise of teammate Ziggy Ansah, Van Noy quietly developed into one of the best linebackers in the nation. His season finale against the San Diego State Aztecs was simply one of the best performances any player had in a game last season. He recorded eight tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two touchdowns. One came on a 17 yard interception return, and the other on a fumble recovery. All told last season, Noy ended up with 53 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles, five passes batted, and two interceptions. He was also among the nations leaders in sacks with 13. The BYU product should find himself in the latter half of the first round, possibly higher if he exceeds last seasons production now that Ansah has moved on to the NFL and he's the main focus of the defense.
4.) Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky. A small-school product, Jackson has had an outstanding career for the Hilltoppers. He has totaled 231 tackles, 33.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks in his two years as a starter. Jackson hasn't just beat up on the small schools either, he has totaled 27 tackles and 3.5 sacks in his three games against SEC opponents (Kentucky and LSU his sophomore season and Alabama last year). A big, bruising linebacker, Jackson plays very well in run support and his personality lends him to being a leader on and off the field. Jackson should find himself in the late part of the first round or the early part of the second.
5.) A.J. Johnson, University of Tennessee*. A very versatile player, Johnson not only lined up at inside linebacker for the Volunteers, but he was also their short-yardage running back, running for 21 yards and six touchdowns on twelve carries. That kind of versatility exhibits an athleticism that every coach in the NFL covets. It also shows an ability to learn and adapt to wildly different responsibilities and reads, and gives him an insight into the mind of an offensive player that makes him a better linebacker. One of the only good things to happen to a bad Volunteer team last season, Johnson totaled 138 tackles, which was good for a tie for fifth in the nation. He also tallied 8.5 tackles for loss, one sack and one pass broken up. If Johnson can duplicate the production he had last year, he should find himself in the top of the second round, possibly sneaking into the first. If he decides not to make himself eligible for the draft and returns to Tennessee for a senior season, I anticipate talking about him next year as a top 20 possibility.
Five down, one position left. Next post: Defensive Backs. Stay tuned!
1.) Anthony Barr, University of California (Los Angeles). Barr had a standout season in 2012, his first at the linebacker position after playing his first two years at fullback. With 83 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, five passes batted and four forced fumbles, Barr had an absolutely monster season and was only out-performed in the sack department at his position by Jarvis Jones, who was a first round pick in this year's draft. If Barr is able to replicate his performance from last year, I fully expect to see him come off the board very early in the draft. With that kind of production consistently, he may find himself in the top 10.
2.) C.J. Mosely, University of Alabama. Every Dolphins fan cringes (at the very least) at the very mention of the name Nick Saban. And for good reason, the man left in a shady way that left a very sour taste in all of us fans' mouths. That being said, you have to recognize that the man has developed some serious talent in his time with the Crimson Tide. Mosely will be the latest in the long line of talented Tide players to make an impact at the next level. Mosely tallied 107 tackles, eight tackles for loss, four sacks, two interceptions, and a forced fumble last season. Mosely's real value is his skill in pass coverage, he has the speed and agility necessary to cover a back out in the flat or to cover a tight end down the seam, which will surely make him rise up teams draft board into the top twenty picks of the first round.
3.) Kyle Van Noy, Brigham Young University. Overshadowed by the meteoric rise of teammate Ziggy Ansah, Van Noy quietly developed into one of the best linebackers in the nation. His season finale against the San Diego State Aztecs was simply one of the best performances any player had in a game last season. He recorded eight tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two touchdowns. One came on a 17 yard interception return, and the other on a fumble recovery. All told last season, Noy ended up with 53 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles, five passes batted, and two interceptions. He was also among the nations leaders in sacks with 13. The BYU product should find himself in the latter half of the first round, possibly higher if he exceeds last seasons production now that Ansah has moved on to the NFL and he's the main focus of the defense.
4.) Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky. A small-school product, Jackson has had an outstanding career for the Hilltoppers. He has totaled 231 tackles, 33.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks in his two years as a starter. Jackson hasn't just beat up on the small schools either, he has totaled 27 tackles and 3.5 sacks in his three games against SEC opponents (Kentucky and LSU his sophomore season and Alabama last year). A big, bruising linebacker, Jackson plays very well in run support and his personality lends him to being a leader on and off the field. Jackson should find himself in the late part of the first round or the early part of the second.
5.) A.J. Johnson, University of Tennessee*. A very versatile player, Johnson not only lined up at inside linebacker for the Volunteers, but he was also their short-yardage running back, running for 21 yards and six touchdowns on twelve carries. That kind of versatility exhibits an athleticism that every coach in the NFL covets. It also shows an ability to learn and adapt to wildly different responsibilities and reads, and gives him an insight into the mind of an offensive player that makes him a better linebacker. One of the only good things to happen to a bad Volunteer team last season, Johnson totaled 138 tackles, which was good for a tie for fifth in the nation. He also tallied 8.5 tackles for loss, one sack and one pass broken up. If Johnson can duplicate the production he had last year, he should find himself in the top of the second round, possibly sneaking into the first. If he decides not to make himself eligible for the draft and returns to Tennessee for a senior season, I anticipate talking about him next year as a top 20 possibility.
Five down, one position left. Next post: Defensive Backs. Stay tuned!
Thursday, May 23, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Defensive Line
In today's look at the top players who should be available in the 2014 NFL draft class, we shift our focus to the defensive side of the ball. This year's draft was a defense heavy class, with most of the best players coming from this side of the ball. I see that trend continuing this year, starting with the presumed number one overall pick, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Let's take a look at who I think makes up the top 5 prospects on the defensive line.
1.) Jadeveon Clowney, University of South Carolina*. As I previously mention, all conventional wisdom points to Clowney being the first player selected in the 2014 draft, pretty much regardless of who ends up with the pick. Clowney would most likely have been the first overall pick in this year's draft had he been eligible. I would venture to say that the same thing goes for the year prior to that too. Clowney has been a top-tier NFL talent since coming out of high school, and I would venture to say that he has the potential to become the best defensive end since Bruce Smith. If you need convincing, just go to YouTube and search for the hit he put on Vincent Smith in the Outback Bowl back in January. Enough said.
2.) Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame*. Another defensive end, Tuitt was instrumental in leading the Fighting Irish to the National Championship game last season. Without the performances turned in by Tuitt and his partner at defensive tackle Louis Nix, Manti Te'o would not have gone on to become the phenomenon that he did. Without those two guys eating up blockers and rushing the passer, Te'o is just another guy. Tuitt will get a chance to prove this year that he deserves just as much (if not more) recognition for the Notre Dame resurgence as Te'o got last season. If Tuitt meets or exceeds his numbers from last year, I expect him to be taken in the top half of the first round.
3.) Louis Nix, Notre Dame. As previously mentioned, Nix (along with Tuitt) was a lynch-pin in the success and recent resurgence of the Notre Dame football program. Nix is a beast in the middle, measuring 6'3" and 340lbs. Nix eats blockers with the best of them, freeing up guys like Tuitt and (last year) Te'o to make big plays. Every defense needs a guy like Nix. But Nix's value isn't only in his ability to be a big body in the middle. He is also quite agile for a man of his size and is very capable in both the pass and run game. With 95 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and six passes batted down, Nix has an all-around game that should see him selected with Clowney and his Notre Dame counterpart in the top half of the first round.
4.) Anthony Johnson, Louisiana State University*. Johnson is the next in a long line of great defensive players to come from the SEC powerhouse that is LSU. Following in the footsteps of guys like Michael Brockers, Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, and others, Johnson has a mighty big legacy to uphold, and he has all the talent to do just that. At 6'3 and 304 lbs, Johnson has the size to play either inside or outside. And he has the speed and athleticism to do both very well. With his combination of size, speed, and God given ability, it's hard for me not to put Johnson higher on this list. The only reason I have him at number 4 on this list instead of number 2 or 3 is that he's only been a starter one year. I want to see him produce for one more season before I put him ahead of the likes of Nix and Tuitt. If he has the kind of year that he is capable of having this year, I may have to revise this list and bump him up.
5.) Timmy Jernigan, Florida State University*. Jernigan has all the physical tools to be a force to be reckoned with, standing 6'2" and weighing in at just a shade under 300lbs, while also running a 40 yard dash in under 5 seconds. After a disappointing 2012 that saw Jernigan be overshadowed by the likes of Bjoern Werner, Tank Carradine, and Everette Dawkins, Jernigan looks to redeem himself and equal or surpass the numbers he posted in his breakout freshman season. That season (2011), Jernigan led the D-line with 30 tackles, six tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. If Jernigan can expand those numbers now that he is the "big man on campus" so to speak, he should find his way into the latter half of the first round.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the next to last segment in my look at the 2014 NFL draft, when I break down the top 5 linebacker prospects.
1.) Jadeveon Clowney, University of South Carolina*. As I previously mention, all conventional wisdom points to Clowney being the first player selected in the 2014 draft, pretty much regardless of who ends up with the pick. Clowney would most likely have been the first overall pick in this year's draft had he been eligible. I would venture to say that the same thing goes for the year prior to that too. Clowney has been a top-tier NFL talent since coming out of high school, and I would venture to say that he has the potential to become the best defensive end since Bruce Smith. If you need convincing, just go to YouTube and search for the hit he put on Vincent Smith in the Outback Bowl back in January. Enough said.
2.) Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame*. Another defensive end, Tuitt was instrumental in leading the Fighting Irish to the National Championship game last season. Without the performances turned in by Tuitt and his partner at defensive tackle Louis Nix, Manti Te'o would not have gone on to become the phenomenon that he did. Without those two guys eating up blockers and rushing the passer, Te'o is just another guy. Tuitt will get a chance to prove this year that he deserves just as much (if not more) recognition for the Notre Dame resurgence as Te'o got last season. If Tuitt meets or exceeds his numbers from last year, I expect him to be taken in the top half of the first round.
3.) Louis Nix, Notre Dame. As previously mentioned, Nix (along with Tuitt) was a lynch-pin in the success and recent resurgence of the Notre Dame football program. Nix is a beast in the middle, measuring 6'3" and 340lbs. Nix eats blockers with the best of them, freeing up guys like Tuitt and (last year) Te'o to make big plays. Every defense needs a guy like Nix. But Nix's value isn't only in his ability to be a big body in the middle. He is also quite agile for a man of his size and is very capable in both the pass and run game. With 95 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and six passes batted down, Nix has an all-around game that should see him selected with Clowney and his Notre Dame counterpart in the top half of the first round.
4.) Anthony Johnson, Louisiana State University*. Johnson is the next in a long line of great defensive players to come from the SEC powerhouse that is LSU. Following in the footsteps of guys like Michael Brockers, Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, and others, Johnson has a mighty big legacy to uphold, and he has all the talent to do just that. At 6'3 and 304 lbs, Johnson has the size to play either inside or outside. And he has the speed and athleticism to do both very well. With his combination of size, speed, and God given ability, it's hard for me not to put Johnson higher on this list. The only reason I have him at number 4 on this list instead of number 2 or 3 is that he's only been a starter one year. I want to see him produce for one more season before I put him ahead of the likes of Nix and Tuitt. If he has the kind of year that he is capable of having this year, I may have to revise this list and bump him up.
5.) Timmy Jernigan, Florida State University*. Jernigan has all the physical tools to be a force to be reckoned with, standing 6'2" and weighing in at just a shade under 300lbs, while also running a 40 yard dash in under 5 seconds. After a disappointing 2012 that saw Jernigan be overshadowed by the likes of Bjoern Werner, Tank Carradine, and Everette Dawkins, Jernigan looks to redeem himself and equal or surpass the numbers he posted in his breakout freshman season. That season (2011), Jernigan led the D-line with 30 tackles, six tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. If Jernigan can expand those numbers now that he is the "big man on campus" so to speak, he should find his way into the latter half of the first round.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the next to last segment in my look at the 2014 NFL draft, when I break down the top 5 linebacker prospects.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Wide Receivers
Today we reach the halfway point of our look into the top players who should be available in the 2014 NFL Draft. This post will finish off the offensive side of the ball, looking at the top 5 wide receivers. In my opinion, this class is one of the weakest classes I have ever seen at this position and I had a hard time filling out every spot. I'm in no way confident with my predictions here beyond the first two. With that said, let's take a look:
1.) Marqise Lee, University of Southern California*. Lee is head and shoulders above everyone else at his position in this class. Had a few other wide receivers stayed in school for their senior seasons that may be a different story, but with the crop expected to be in this class, he dominates. Lee has had the privilege of working with one of the great college quarterbacks in Matt Barkley. With his departure to the NFL, it's time for Lee to step up and show us that his previous successes are a product of him and not simply a reflection of how great Barkley was.
2.) Sammy Watkins, University of Clemson*. Were it not for a disappointing season last year, Watkins wouldn't be on this list at all, as he would have declared for the draft and would be fighting for a starting position in the NFL. But, after an arrest that led to a two game suspension, and subsequently seeing his roster spot be taken by De'Andre Hopkins, Watkins is back to re-establish himself as a top-flight receiving prospect. Watkins has all the physical tools you want in a wide receiver, being listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, while also running a 4.4 flat in the 40 yard dash. That combination of size and speed is something that every coach looks for, so if Watkins can get over his off-the-field issues, he should, along with Lee, see himself chosen in the top half of the first round of next year's draft.
3.) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, University of Washington*. Now here is where you're probably thinking (if you follow college football, that is) "But Chris, Seferian-Jenkins is a tight end, you said this was about wide receivers". And you would be right, Seferian-Jenkins is, in fact, listed as a tight end. But with the way that tight ends are used in today's offenses, they may as well be another wide receiver. The elite tight ends in today's NFL put up just as much production as the top wide receivers, and for this reason, I have no qualms about putting the top college tight end at number three. Seferian-Jenkins is a freakish athlete, being listed at 6'6", 266 lbs and still running a sub 4.6 40 yard dash. As with Watkins, that rare combination of size and speed will all but ensure that Seferian-Jenkins joins the two previously listed wide receivers as first round selections.
4.) Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt University. This is where the class starts to fall apart. After the first three guys, I'm not sure that I see anyone else being selected in the first round. If there is another one though, I think it's most likely to be Matthews. Matthews is relatively unknown, playing for one of the bottom feeder universities, but he has managed some pretty impressive production in his time there. In the 2012 season, Matthews hauled in 94 catches for over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. In his sophomore season (2011) he managed to bring in 41 receptions for 778 yards and five touchdowns. Matthews has some excellent hands and appears to be a very accomplished route runner. Oh, and his cousin is Jerry Rice, so he has some impressive genetics on his side as well
5.) Brandon Coleman, Rutgers University*. Coleman is unlikely to be a first round pick, but I have to have someone to round out the top five and in my opinion, he's the next in line. Built more like a tight end at 6'6 and 220 lbs, Coleman is a large target and should be quite valuable as a red-zone target. The biggest question mark about Coleman, and the reason he's not expected to be a first round pick, is his speed. Unlike his similar-sized tight end counterpart Seferian-Jenkins, Coleman runs in the 4.6+ range in the 40 yard dash, which as a wide receiver will make teams shy away from taking him. He has put up good production in his time at Rutgers, but unless he can do something to improve his speed, he will fall to the second day of the draft.
And that does it for the offensive side of the ball. Tomorrow we'll start our look into the defensive side, including the consensus number one overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Until tomorrow!
1.) Marqise Lee, University of Southern California*. Lee is head and shoulders above everyone else at his position in this class. Had a few other wide receivers stayed in school for their senior seasons that may be a different story, but with the crop expected to be in this class, he dominates. Lee has had the privilege of working with one of the great college quarterbacks in Matt Barkley. With his departure to the NFL, it's time for Lee to step up and show us that his previous successes are a product of him and not simply a reflection of how great Barkley was.
2.) Sammy Watkins, University of Clemson*. Were it not for a disappointing season last year, Watkins wouldn't be on this list at all, as he would have declared for the draft and would be fighting for a starting position in the NFL. But, after an arrest that led to a two game suspension, and subsequently seeing his roster spot be taken by De'Andre Hopkins, Watkins is back to re-establish himself as a top-flight receiving prospect. Watkins has all the physical tools you want in a wide receiver, being listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, while also running a 4.4 flat in the 40 yard dash. That combination of size and speed is something that every coach looks for, so if Watkins can get over his off-the-field issues, he should, along with Lee, see himself chosen in the top half of the first round of next year's draft.
3.) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, University of Washington*. Now here is where you're probably thinking (if you follow college football, that is) "But Chris, Seferian-Jenkins is a tight end, you said this was about wide receivers". And you would be right, Seferian-Jenkins is, in fact, listed as a tight end. But with the way that tight ends are used in today's offenses, they may as well be another wide receiver. The elite tight ends in today's NFL put up just as much production as the top wide receivers, and for this reason, I have no qualms about putting the top college tight end at number three. Seferian-Jenkins is a freakish athlete, being listed at 6'6", 266 lbs and still running a sub 4.6 40 yard dash. As with Watkins, that rare combination of size and speed will all but ensure that Seferian-Jenkins joins the two previously listed wide receivers as first round selections.
4.) Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt University. This is where the class starts to fall apart. After the first three guys, I'm not sure that I see anyone else being selected in the first round. If there is another one though, I think it's most likely to be Matthews. Matthews is relatively unknown, playing for one of the bottom feeder universities, but he has managed some pretty impressive production in his time there. In the 2012 season, Matthews hauled in 94 catches for over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. In his sophomore season (2011) he managed to bring in 41 receptions for 778 yards and five touchdowns. Matthews has some excellent hands and appears to be a very accomplished route runner. Oh, and his cousin is Jerry Rice, so he has some impressive genetics on his side as well
5.) Brandon Coleman, Rutgers University*. Coleman is unlikely to be a first round pick, but I have to have someone to round out the top five and in my opinion, he's the next in line. Built more like a tight end at 6'6 and 220 lbs, Coleman is a large target and should be quite valuable as a red-zone target. The biggest question mark about Coleman, and the reason he's not expected to be a first round pick, is his speed. Unlike his similar-sized tight end counterpart Seferian-Jenkins, Coleman runs in the 4.6+ range in the 40 yard dash, which as a wide receiver will make teams shy away from taking him. He has put up good production in his time at Rutgers, but unless he can do something to improve his speed, he will fall to the second day of the draft.
And that does it for the offensive side of the ball. Tomorrow we'll start our look into the defensive side, including the consensus number one overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Until tomorrow!
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Running Backs
Two weeks ago I started my preview into the 2014 draft class. After that post I went through some life issues that forced me to suspend my blog. Now that my life issues have been sorted out, I'm ready to continue where I left off, with the running back class for the 2014 draft. But before I get to that, I would like to take this opportunity to thank a few people who have helped me out in the last two weeks. To James Bozeman, Robert Parker, Brendan Toungate, and Elinor Levin thank you guys for all the support you have given me! Now, without further adieu, I present to you the top 5 running backs in next year's draft.
1.) De'Anthony Thomas, University of Oregon*. This year's draft class was a historically weak class for the running back position, with none being taken in the first round for the first time in over 40 years. In my opinion, next year's class isn't much stronger than this one. Running back is quickly becoming one of the most overlooked and under-developed positions in the NFL. If three of these guys are selected in the first round, I will be shocked. That being said, I think that Thomas is by far the top of the class. He's had a pretty good first two years splitting time with Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James. Now it's Thomas' turn to show what he can do as a featured back. If he can expand on what he was able to do the last two seasons, he should be the first running back off the board next April.
2.) Ka'Deem Carey, University of Arizona*. Carey isn't far behind Thomas for the top spot in this class. He took the college football landscape by storm last year, coming from relative obscurity to lead the nation with nearly 2,000 yards while maintaining a 6.4 yards per carry average. Though Carey does not possess ideal size, if he is able to add 10lbs or so to his frame and maintain his quickness, he may make a strong case for leapfroging Thomas into the number one position.
3.) Lache Seastrunk, University of Baylor*. Seastrunk possesses a bit more size than Carey does, so if Carey doesn't add the bulk that he needs to, Seastrunk could easily surpass him. The top three running backs in this class. With the departures RGIII, Nick Florence, Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams, Seastrunk should be the number one option for the Baylor Bears. With 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns (including 843 in the final six games) last season as a second or third option, his numbers should increase significantly this season. If he improves upon his numbers from last season and reaches his own personal goal of winning the Heisman Trophy, he could easily become the number one guy on most people's boards. I have Seastrunk as the number 3 guy because he has a bit of a tendency to dance in the hole and not to just trust his instincts and run downhill.
4.) Damien Williams, University of Oklahoma. Much like Seastrunk at Baylor, Williams has been a second or third option in the past, but should finally get the chance to be the focal point of the Sooner's offense. At 5'11" and 215lbs, Williams has the best size of any running back in this class, and while he does have nice elusiveness and quickness for his size, he isn't quite as complete of a running back as the previously mentioned prospects.
5.) Silas Redd, University of Southern California*. In light of the scandal at Penn State revolving around former coach Jerry Sandusky, the former Penn State running back decided to jump ship and transfer to USC. In his first season with the Trojans, Redd amassed 905 yards and nine touchdowns. In his previous season at Penn State, Redd ran for 1,200+ yards and seven touchdown, so Redd does have the potential to be a successful running back. The knock on Redd comes when you look at his receiving ability. He doesn't catch the ball often out of the backfield, and at the next level he's going to be asked to do that. Until he can display this ability, he can't be rated any higher. If he does though, he may leapfrog over Williams.
There you have it folks, the top 5 running back prospects in next year's draft. Four out of the five are underclassmen, which is pretty much par for the course when it comes to running backs. It's a position that gets beat up a lot, so they have to get their money when they can. Tomorrow I'll look at the top 5 wide receivers. Come back tomorrow to see who is ranked and where!
1.) De'Anthony Thomas, University of Oregon*. This year's draft class was a historically weak class for the running back position, with none being taken in the first round for the first time in over 40 years. In my opinion, next year's class isn't much stronger than this one. Running back is quickly becoming one of the most overlooked and under-developed positions in the NFL. If three of these guys are selected in the first round, I will be shocked. That being said, I think that Thomas is by far the top of the class. He's had a pretty good first two years splitting time with Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James. Now it's Thomas' turn to show what he can do as a featured back. If he can expand on what he was able to do the last two seasons, he should be the first running back off the board next April.
2.) Ka'Deem Carey, University of Arizona*. Carey isn't far behind Thomas for the top spot in this class. He took the college football landscape by storm last year, coming from relative obscurity to lead the nation with nearly 2,000 yards while maintaining a 6.4 yards per carry average. Though Carey does not possess ideal size, if he is able to add 10lbs or so to his frame and maintain his quickness, he may make a strong case for leapfroging Thomas into the number one position.
3.) Lache Seastrunk, University of Baylor*. Seastrunk possesses a bit more size than Carey does, so if Carey doesn't add the bulk that he needs to, Seastrunk could easily surpass him. The top three running backs in this class. With the departures RGIII, Nick Florence, Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams, Seastrunk should be the number one option for the Baylor Bears. With 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns (including 843 in the final six games) last season as a second or third option, his numbers should increase significantly this season. If he improves upon his numbers from last season and reaches his own personal goal of winning the Heisman Trophy, he could easily become the number one guy on most people's boards. I have Seastrunk as the number 3 guy because he has a bit of a tendency to dance in the hole and not to just trust his instincts and run downhill.
4.) Damien Williams, University of Oklahoma. Much like Seastrunk at Baylor, Williams has been a second or third option in the past, but should finally get the chance to be the focal point of the Sooner's offense. At 5'11" and 215lbs, Williams has the best size of any running back in this class, and while he does have nice elusiveness and quickness for his size, he isn't quite as complete of a running back as the previously mentioned prospects.
5.) Silas Redd, University of Southern California*. In light of the scandal at Penn State revolving around former coach Jerry Sandusky, the former Penn State running back decided to jump ship and transfer to USC. In his first season with the Trojans, Redd amassed 905 yards and nine touchdowns. In his previous season at Penn State, Redd ran for 1,200+ yards and seven touchdown, so Redd does have the potential to be a successful running back. The knock on Redd comes when you look at his receiving ability. He doesn't catch the ball often out of the backfield, and at the next level he's going to be asked to do that. Until he can display this ability, he can't be rated any higher. If he does though, he may leapfrog over Williams.
There you have it folks, the top 5 running back prospects in next year's draft. Four out of the five are underclassmen, which is pretty much par for the course when it comes to running backs. It's a position that gets beat up a lot, so they have to get their money when they can. Tomorrow I'll look at the top 5 wide receivers. Come back tomorrow to see who is ranked and where!
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
2014 Draft Class Preview: Quarterbacks
It's been a little over a week since the 2013 NFL Draft ended, and it's never too early to start looking ahead. Today, in the first of my six part series looking at the top 2014 NFL Draft prospects, I'm going to start at the most important position on the field, the quarterback. The class of quarterbacks in this years draft was disappointing to say the least, with only one going in the first round, and by all accounts he shouldn't have been drafted that high. The 2014 class, however, should be considerably better, especially if underclassmen decide to declare. Without further adieu, let's begin:
1.) Teddy Bridgewater, University of Louisville*. Bridgewater is only a junior this season, but he headlines a class of quarterbacks who, although stronger than this years class, is in my eyes pretty weak. By all accounts, he is NFL ready and will almost certainly declare for the draft. Despite being an athletic quarterback, Bridgewater is also an accomplished pocket passer and should be a good fit for any system, whether it be the read option that is sweeping the NFL lately or a more conventional, pocket passing system.
2.) Tajh Boyd, Clemson University. It was thought that Boyd would declare himself eligible for this years draft, as he also seems ready for the NFL game. After a disappointing junior campaign, Boyd decided to go against the conventional thought and decided to come back for his senior season. This is a great choice for Boyd, as he probably would have been the fourth or fifth selection at his position in this draft after such a disappointing season. By choosing to come back, Boyd will give himself the chance to redeem himself and answer some of the questions that remain about him. I anticipate him answering these questions in a resounding manner and pushing Bridgewater for the top of this class.
3.) David Fales, San Jose State University. Not much is known about this small school kid. He started last season for San Jose State after transferring from the junior college level. Fales is a conventional quarteback with ideal size and a cannon for an arm. After watching some tape on this kid, I fully expect him to be in the discussion with Boyd and Bridgewater, assuming that he can reproduce and improve upon the successes of his first season with the Spartans. 3,800 yards, 31 touchdowns and a 73% completion percentage is a pretty good start to his quest to prove that you don't have to come from a powerhouse school to succeed as a quarterback at the next level.
4.) Aaron Murray, Georgia University. When focused and playing up to his potential, Murray is the best quarterback in this class. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a Heisman trophy winner (which is a possibility for Murray this season) and a top 10 pick in the draft. Murray's problem is that he struggles with consistency. Murray reminds me a lot of Tyler Bray in this respect, a kid who is immensely talented, but doesn't always look like he's into the game. Murray has a strong arm and is more athletic in the pocket than people give him credit for, and if he can work on his poise and concentration in big games and situations, he should end up higher on this list.
5.) A.J. McCarron, Alabama University. McCarron is a guy that I don't see making much of an impact at the next level. He's a natural born leader and has had a lot of success at the college level, but I'm not sure that his game translates well to the next level. I think he's more in the mold of Tim Tebow in that respect, though he has a much more NFL caliber game than Tebow does. The reason I have decided to put McCarron on this list ahead of some other notable quarterbacks (Logan Thomas being the most obvious one) is simple. Two championships in three years with a chance to make it three in four years has to earn you some respect. I don't care how much your game doesn't translate to the next level, if you have a winning pedigree like that, you're going to be looked at by some NFL clubs. I guarantee you will see McCarron at the next level, but most likely as a backup who the crowd chimes for every time the starter makes a mistake.
Tomorrow I'll be taking a look at who I think are the top 5 Running Backs for the 2014 draft. Come back tomorrow and every day this week!
Saturday, May 4, 2013
Don Jones
With Miami having traded away their pick in the sixth round, they made their final selection of 2013 in the seventh round. The final Dolphin to be added to the roster was the athletic corner/safety from Arkansas State, Don Jones. Despite possessing rare athleticism, Jones will most likely struggle to make the roster, needing to really shine on special teams if he wants to stick around. Let's take a look at the last man in our recap of the draft.
What he does well: When you watch any tape on Jones (and, being from Arkansas State, there isn't much), two things stand out to me right away. His athleticism and his aggressiveness. At his pro day, Jones exhibited his athletic ability, running the 40 yard dash in 4.41 seconds, putting up a mark of 10' 7" in the broad jump and leaping 42" in the vertical jump. This athleticism, along with his size (5'11" 190lbs) showcases the fact that Jones, despite being from a relatively unknown school, has the physical tools to play his position at the next level. When watching his tape, you see that Jones makes decisions quickly and doesn't over-think situations. He sees what he sees and attacks. He's very aggressive in both the pass game and the run game, and is not afraid to stick his nose in there and hit someone.
What he needs to improve: Along with the aggressiveness comes the possibility of being out of position. From the little film that I've watched on the guy, he seems to be out of position quite often. He's aggressive almost to a fault, running past the ball carrier or right into where the blocker wants him to go, completely taking himself out of position to make a play.
Where he fits: If Jones is going to make the team this season, it's most likely going to be as a special teams player, most likely in the gunner position on punts. Miami has drafted several DB's as well as already having several on the roster and it is very unlikely that a seventh round pick from the Sun Belt conference is going to be able to unseat one of those veterans in his rookie season. If Jones is able to showcase his abilities in the special teams game, he should be able to stick around, possibly long enough to further learn the safety position and potentially make the team in the future not only as a special teamer, but as a full blown safety.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpIk4xUTRA0
Well, that's it folks, my look into the Miami Dolphins draft class has come to an end. All in all, it was a very successful draft for us, despite almost completely ignoring our biggest problem area. The need for a left tackle to protect Tannehill's blindside is still something that needs to be addressed, and the fact that they didn't do so in the draft is the reason that I can't give Miami any higher grade than a B on this draft class. Though you never really know about a draft class until three to four years after, so this may turn out to be a much better draft than we initially thought.
What he does well: When you watch any tape on Jones (and, being from Arkansas State, there isn't much), two things stand out to me right away. His athleticism and his aggressiveness. At his pro day, Jones exhibited his athletic ability, running the 40 yard dash in 4.41 seconds, putting up a mark of 10' 7" in the broad jump and leaping 42" in the vertical jump. This athleticism, along with his size (5'11" 190lbs) showcases the fact that Jones, despite being from a relatively unknown school, has the physical tools to play his position at the next level. When watching his tape, you see that Jones makes decisions quickly and doesn't over-think situations. He sees what he sees and attacks. He's very aggressive in both the pass game and the run game, and is not afraid to stick his nose in there and hit someone.
What he needs to improve: Along with the aggressiveness comes the possibility of being out of position. From the little film that I've watched on the guy, he seems to be out of position quite often. He's aggressive almost to a fault, running past the ball carrier or right into where the blocker wants him to go, completely taking himself out of position to make a play.
Where he fits: If Jones is going to make the team this season, it's most likely going to be as a special teams player, most likely in the gunner position on punts. Miami has drafted several DB's as well as already having several on the roster and it is very unlikely that a seventh round pick from the Sun Belt conference is going to be able to unseat one of those veterans in his rookie season. If Jones is able to showcase his abilities in the special teams game, he should be able to stick around, possibly long enough to further learn the safety position and potentially make the team in the future not only as a special teamer, but as a full blown safety.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpIk4xUTRA0
Well, that's it folks, my look into the Miami Dolphins draft class has come to an end. All in all, it was a very successful draft for us, despite almost completely ignoring our biggest problem area. The need for a left tackle to protect Tannehill's blindside is still something that needs to be addressed, and the fact that they didn't do so in the draft is the reason that I can't give Miami any higher grade than a B on this draft class. Though you never really know about a draft class until three to four years after, so this may turn out to be a much better draft than we initially thought.
Friday, May 3, 2013
Gillislee and Sturgis
With two picks in the fifth round (I'm sensing a theme here), the Miami Dolphins chose to plug two more holes, this time at Running Back and Kicker. Yes guys, kickers are people too. With the addition of these two, Miami has added depth at a critical position, giving Lamar Miller competition for the back-up/third down back role behind Daniel Thomas. The acquisition of Sturgis should allow Miami to part ways with current kicker Dan Carpenter, a move that will save the Dolphins nearly $3 million in salary cap space. Let's take a look at both former Gators.
What they do well: Gillislee is big enough (5'8" and 206lbs) to handle being a featured back in the NFL, with a size adequate enough to take a beating and power the ball through the line of scrimmage. However, he is also agile enough to come in off the bench as a quick, change-of-pace back. This dual threat potential is something that has been absent in Miami since Ricky Williams discovered marijuana. Gillislee is also a capable blocker in the backfield, which is essential to any running back wanting to see significant playing time. As for Sturgis, there's not much breakdown to be done on a kicker, either you can kick the ball or you can't. This kid definitely can. During his three healthy years at Florida, Sturgis connected on 81% of his field goals, including 8 of 13 from 50+ yards and a career long of 56 yards.
Where they need to improve: Sturgis is the easiest to address here, he needs to work on his touchback percentages. He improved last year, raising his touchback percentage from 17 percent in 2011 to 45 percent in 2012. While this is a significant improvement, he still has a long way to go to be where he needs to be at the next level. As for Gillislee, he has a tendency to be unsure what to do with the ball once he gets it. He's not a decisive runner, opting to dance and wait for a hole to open up instead of just trusting his instincts and hitting the hole right away with confidence in his line to do what they are supposed to. In the blocking game, Gillislee will occasionally go in for a cut-block too early, allowing the defender an opportunity to adjust and avoid the block. He will also occasionally carry the ball in the wrong arm, which just invites a defender to come in and cause a fumble.
Where they fit: I fully expect Sturgis to be our kicker come week 1, beating out Dan Carpenter in training camp and allowing us to cut Carpenter. That move would save us $3 million in salary cap space, which will afford us more room to address some of our expiring contracts next year. There are several key players whose contracts will need to be addressed in the next off-season and Miami will need as much cap space as they can get. I also fully expect Gillislee to beat out Daniel Thomas for the back-up running back position, possibly leading to his release as well. Thomas has been nothing but a disappointment since he arrived in Miami and I think we're looking to move on from him.
Highlight Videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46F1Yt3jF10 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYsQT5qar3U
What they do well: Gillislee is big enough (5'8" and 206lbs) to handle being a featured back in the NFL, with a size adequate enough to take a beating and power the ball through the line of scrimmage. However, he is also agile enough to come in off the bench as a quick, change-of-pace back. This dual threat potential is something that has been absent in Miami since Ricky Williams discovered marijuana. Gillislee is also a capable blocker in the backfield, which is essential to any running back wanting to see significant playing time. As for Sturgis, there's not much breakdown to be done on a kicker, either you can kick the ball or you can't. This kid definitely can. During his three healthy years at Florida, Sturgis connected on 81% of his field goals, including 8 of 13 from 50+ yards and a career long of 56 yards.
Where they need to improve: Sturgis is the easiest to address here, he needs to work on his touchback percentages. He improved last year, raising his touchback percentage from 17 percent in 2011 to 45 percent in 2012. While this is a significant improvement, he still has a long way to go to be where he needs to be at the next level. As for Gillislee, he has a tendency to be unsure what to do with the ball once he gets it. He's not a decisive runner, opting to dance and wait for a hole to open up instead of just trusting his instincts and hitting the hole right away with confidence in his line to do what they are supposed to. In the blocking game, Gillislee will occasionally go in for a cut-block too early, allowing the defender an opportunity to adjust and avoid the block. He will also occasionally carry the ball in the wrong arm, which just invites a defender to come in and cause a fumble.
Where they fit: I fully expect Sturgis to be our kicker come week 1, beating out Dan Carpenter in training camp and allowing us to cut Carpenter. That move would save us $3 million in salary cap space, which will afford us more room to address some of our expiring contracts next year. There are several key players whose contracts will need to be addressed in the next off-season and Miami will need as much cap space as they can get. I also fully expect Gillislee to beat out Daniel Thomas for the back-up running back position, possibly leading to his release as well. Thomas has been nothing but a disappointment since he arrived in Miami and I think we're looking to move on from him.
Highlight Videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46F1Yt3jF10 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYsQT5qar3U
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Dion Sims
With today's post, we're going to look at the latter of Miami's two fourth round selections. Having some questions along the offensive line and with no offensive tackles left on the board worth picking, Miami chose to select a predominantly blocking tight end in Michigan State's Dion Sims. Coming from the Big 10 conference, Sims is well versed in what it means to block in a rush-first style of offense. That's what they do in the Big 10, and that experience should be a help to whomever Miami decides is the answer to their gaping hole at left tackle. Let's take a look at Sims.
What he does well: First and foremost, Sims is a blocking tight end. Le'Veon Bell was a huge part of the Spartan offense, and he would not have been able to perform were it not for the blocking skills of Sims. At 6'5" and 260lbs, Sims is a mountain of a man who, once he's on a block, will stick to his man like glue and is very difficult to shake. Sims also, surprisingly, possesses some pretty quick feet given his massive frame. This allows him to get into position for the blocks and stay there without fumbling over his feet, wondering where they might be. His size is not only an asset in blocking, but also in the passing game. Sims is a huge target in the red-zone and knows how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball. Sims also has huge, soft hands which allows him to catch the ball with ease and get his hands around the ball to keep defenders from being able to knock it free.
Where he needs to improve: Being such a large man, Sims isn't the most agile individual. This leads to him having difficulties adjusting to bring in difficult catches. Sims doesn't flip his hips very smoothly and can get caught in bad positions if the throw is off the mark slightly. Despite his extensive experience, he will occasionally fail to get his hands in the correct position when asked to block, ending up with his hands outside the frame of the lineman instead of inside. This can lead to being called for holding during a pivotal moment in a game and is something that his coaches will drill into him, I have no doubt.
Where he fits: Sims will be listed as the second-string tight end, but make no mistake about it, this kid will be used extensively. Today's NFL utilizes two tight end sets far more often than it did even five years ago, so you may as well say he's a starter. It's rare that you find a guy in the fourth round who is going to be a week 1 starter, but with Sims' blocking abilities, I expect just that from him. Obviously he's not going to leapfrog Keller on the depth chart, but I expect to see both on the field most of the time, with Sims lined up on the left side to assist in protecting Ryan Tannehill's blindside.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyutgYUJsMQ
What he does well: First and foremost, Sims is a blocking tight end. Le'Veon Bell was a huge part of the Spartan offense, and he would not have been able to perform were it not for the blocking skills of Sims. At 6'5" and 260lbs, Sims is a mountain of a man who, once he's on a block, will stick to his man like glue and is very difficult to shake. Sims also, surprisingly, possesses some pretty quick feet given his massive frame. This allows him to get into position for the blocks and stay there without fumbling over his feet, wondering where they might be. His size is not only an asset in blocking, but also in the passing game. Sims is a huge target in the red-zone and knows how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball. Sims also has huge, soft hands which allows him to catch the ball with ease and get his hands around the ball to keep defenders from being able to knock it free.
Where he needs to improve: Being such a large man, Sims isn't the most agile individual. This leads to him having difficulties adjusting to bring in difficult catches. Sims doesn't flip his hips very smoothly and can get caught in bad positions if the throw is off the mark slightly. Despite his extensive experience, he will occasionally fail to get his hands in the correct position when asked to block, ending up with his hands outside the frame of the lineman instead of inside. This can lead to being called for holding during a pivotal moment in a game and is something that his coaches will drill into him, I have no doubt.
Where he fits: Sims will be listed as the second-string tight end, but make no mistake about it, this kid will be used extensively. Today's NFL utilizes two tight end sets far more often than it did even five years ago, so you may as well say he's a starter. It's rare that you find a guy in the fourth round who is going to be a week 1 starter, but with Sims' blocking abilities, I expect just that from him. Obviously he's not going to leapfrog Keller on the depth chart, but I expect to see both on the field most of the time, with Sims lined up on the left side to assist in protecting Ryan Tannehill's blindside.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyutgYUJsMQ
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Jelani Jenkins
We are halfway through our in-depth look at the 2013 Miami Dolphins draft class. The next man up is the first of Miami's two fourth round selections, former Florida Gators linebacker Jelani Jenkins. Jenkins possesses some qualities that are quite rare for a man at his position, but he does have quite a few concerns too. Let's take a look at his breakdown.
What he does well: Jenkins possesses rare speed for a linebacker. When healthy at the University of Florida, Jenkins was asked on many occasions to split out and cover a tight end or wide receiver. This is something he excelled at, as he has the speed and agility to maintain coverage on even the smaller, speedy slot receivers. He is also very fluid in his movements for a linebacker, possessing a rare (for his position) ability to flip his hips smoothly and run with whomever he is asked to cover. This ability will make him valuable at the next level, as it is rare these days to find a linebacker with the ability to stick with his man consistently in coverage. When healthy, Jenkins is also very adequate in his blitzing and tackling abilities. He tallied 151 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss (a tackle on a ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage), and 4 sacks in his two fully healthy seasons as a Gator.
What he needs to improve: For all his athleticism, Jenkins does not possess ideal size for a linebacker. At only 6' and 32" arm length, Jenkins has a tendency to get held up on blocks. He doesn't always use his hands well to fight of interior linemen and once they get inside position, Jenkins struggles to get off the block and get to the ball carrier. There are also significant medical concerns with Jenkins, as he was forced to redshirt his freshman season after playing in just two games. He also missed significant time this past season with injuries. In total, Jenkins has had a lingering hamstring issue as well as a surgery on his left foot and one on his left hand.
Where he fits: If Jenkins is healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that he is a very talented linebacker. Had he not had the medical issues at Florida, I would have projected him as a second round prospect. Assuming that Jenkins is healthy and his medical issues are in the past, his versatility as an athlete should guarantee that he makes the roster. I'm not sure that he'll amount to anything more than a special teams player in his rookie season, but if he comes into camp healthy and impresses the coaching staff, I wouldn't be surprised to see him push Koa Misi for the starting strongside linebacker position, though his natural position is over on the weakside.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SXCVI5IJJE
What he does well: Jenkins possesses rare speed for a linebacker. When healthy at the University of Florida, Jenkins was asked on many occasions to split out and cover a tight end or wide receiver. This is something he excelled at, as he has the speed and agility to maintain coverage on even the smaller, speedy slot receivers. He is also very fluid in his movements for a linebacker, possessing a rare (for his position) ability to flip his hips smoothly and run with whomever he is asked to cover. This ability will make him valuable at the next level, as it is rare these days to find a linebacker with the ability to stick with his man consistently in coverage. When healthy, Jenkins is also very adequate in his blitzing and tackling abilities. He tallied 151 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss (a tackle on a ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage), and 4 sacks in his two fully healthy seasons as a Gator.
What he needs to improve: For all his athleticism, Jenkins does not possess ideal size for a linebacker. At only 6' and 32" arm length, Jenkins has a tendency to get held up on blocks. He doesn't always use his hands well to fight of interior linemen and once they get inside position, Jenkins struggles to get off the block and get to the ball carrier. There are also significant medical concerns with Jenkins, as he was forced to redshirt his freshman season after playing in just two games. He also missed significant time this past season with injuries. In total, Jenkins has had a lingering hamstring issue as well as a surgery on his left foot and one on his left hand.
Where he fits: If Jenkins is healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that he is a very talented linebacker. Had he not had the medical issues at Florida, I would have projected him as a second round prospect. Assuming that Jenkins is healthy and his medical issues are in the past, his versatility as an athlete should guarantee that he makes the roster. I'm not sure that he'll amount to anything more than a special teams player in his rookie season, but if he comes into camp healthy and impresses the coaching staff, I wouldn't be surprised to see him push Koa Misi for the starting strongside linebacker position, though his natural position is over on the weakside.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SXCVI5IJJE
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Will Davis
Today, in my ongoing series looking at the Miami Dolphins' 2013 draft prospect by prospect, I take a look at the second of our two third round selections. Will Davis was the pick after Miami decided to initially trade out of the third round, and then back up to select the corner out of Utah State University. This pick, to me, is possibly the biggest head-scratcher of the entire weekend. Let's take a look at the breakdown.
What he does well: The first thing that stands out when watching Will Davis is his natural ability. He has not been playing football all that long, but he's very fluid in his movements. He flips his hips well and is able to change direction very smoothly. He has nice ball skills, as evidenced by his 17 pass breakups and five interceptions during his senior year at Utah State. He also has very light feet, and is able to move them very quickly which, along with his physicality, makes him a very competent press-man coverage corner.
Where he needs to improve: Davis is a very aggressive corner. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean that he is susceptible to getting beaten deep on double moves. When he is beat, Davis tends to lack the high-end speed necessary to recover. He also has had issues with being able to get off the blocks of wide receivers in the run game. When he does get off of them, he also has a tendency to miss tackles. He needs to get stronger in his run support. Davis is a pretty decent man coverage corner, but with that comes a deficiency in zone coverage, which is what the Dolphins play. He doesn't have much experience in zone coverage though, so perhaps he's more of a victim of circumstance in this regard and it's not actually a weakness of his.
Where he fits: If Davis works on his zone coverage skills and his ability to get off the block and make a tackle, I anticipate him being able to compete for the nickel corner job, and possibly taking a roster spot from either Nolan Carroll, Dimitri Patterson, or Richard Marshall. I figure that Marshall's job is probably safe, as he has the most versatility of the three with his experience in Arizona playing the safety position. Every Miami fan has been very frustrated having to watch Nolan Carroll struggle at his job, but if I had to guess, I would venture to say that Patterson would be the one to leave, as he has a very salary cap unfriendly contract as compared to the amount of production he has given us. Patterson is scheduled to make $4.6 million this season and Miami would take no cap hit from releasing him, so unless Patterson is amenable to a large pay-cut, he's almost certainly played his last game in a Dolphins jersey.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCDCJ6jiSko
What he does well: The first thing that stands out when watching Will Davis is his natural ability. He has not been playing football all that long, but he's very fluid in his movements. He flips his hips well and is able to change direction very smoothly. He has nice ball skills, as evidenced by his 17 pass breakups and five interceptions during his senior year at Utah State. He also has very light feet, and is able to move them very quickly which, along with his physicality, makes him a very competent press-man coverage corner.
Where he needs to improve: Davis is a very aggressive corner. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean that he is susceptible to getting beaten deep on double moves. When he is beat, Davis tends to lack the high-end speed necessary to recover. He also has had issues with being able to get off the blocks of wide receivers in the run game. When he does get off of them, he also has a tendency to miss tackles. He needs to get stronger in his run support. Davis is a pretty decent man coverage corner, but with that comes a deficiency in zone coverage, which is what the Dolphins play. He doesn't have much experience in zone coverage though, so perhaps he's more of a victim of circumstance in this regard and it's not actually a weakness of his.
Where he fits: If Davis works on his zone coverage skills and his ability to get off the block and make a tackle, I anticipate him being able to compete for the nickel corner job, and possibly taking a roster spot from either Nolan Carroll, Dimitri Patterson, or Richard Marshall. I figure that Marshall's job is probably safe, as he has the most versatility of the three with his experience in Arizona playing the safety position. Every Miami fan has been very frustrated having to watch Nolan Carroll struggle at his job, but if I had to guess, I would venture to say that Patterson would be the one to leave, as he has a very salary cap unfriendly contract as compared to the amount of production he has given us. Patterson is scheduled to make $4.6 million this season and Miami would take no cap hit from releasing him, so unless Patterson is amenable to a large pay-cut, he's almost certainly played his last game in a Dolphins jersey.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCDCJ6jiSko
Monday, April 29, 2013
Dallas Thomas
Yesterday I outlined the talents and shortcomings of Miami's second round draft choice, Jamar Taylor. Next up is the first of our two third round selections Dallas Thomas, the offensive lineman out of Tennessee. Offensive line is huge need for Miami going into the season, and the addtion of Thomas, though not addressing our biggest need on the line, a stud left tackle, should provide Miami some much needed depth on the line. Let's take a look
What he does well: First and foremost on the list of what this kid does well is versatility. In his time at Tennesse, Thomas played both guard and tackle. That type of versatility is invaluable when it comes to depth on the offensive line. If someone in the starting lineup goes down to an injury (or suspension), you need to have a quality backup who is ready to come in and take his place. Having a guy that is competent at multiple positions frees up a roster spot for us to have another playmaker, running back, or defensive back rather than to have to waste a spot on a lineman who may never see the field. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Thomas is the game he played against the University of South Carolina. Lined up at the left tackle position, Thomas was entrusted with the responsibility of protecting Tyler Bray's blind-side agains one of the premiere pass rushers in the nation, Jadaveon Clowney. Clowney came out of that game managing only four tackles. Thomas played in the SEC against the best competition that college football has to offer and held up admirably.
What he needs to improve: The biggest area that Thomas needs to improve upon is his strength. Thomas has a tendency to give up ground to defenders, especially more powerful guys who utilize a bull-rush technique.
Where he fits: Thomas is most likely to be projected as a guard at the next level, at least until he addresses his strength issues. I anticipate Thomas battling Richie Incognito for a job at the Left Guard position, as Incoginto is not a great fit for the zone-blocking scheme that Philbin wants to run. I don't anticipate Thomas being able to unseat Incognito just yet, but I look for him to be in the starting lineup come his second year.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbkJrFl65lE
What he does well: First and foremost on the list of what this kid does well is versatility. In his time at Tennesse, Thomas played both guard and tackle. That type of versatility is invaluable when it comes to depth on the offensive line. If someone in the starting lineup goes down to an injury (or suspension), you need to have a quality backup who is ready to come in and take his place. Having a guy that is competent at multiple positions frees up a roster spot for us to have another playmaker, running back, or defensive back rather than to have to waste a spot on a lineman who may never see the field. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Thomas is the game he played against the University of South Carolina. Lined up at the left tackle position, Thomas was entrusted with the responsibility of protecting Tyler Bray's blind-side agains one of the premiere pass rushers in the nation, Jadaveon Clowney. Clowney came out of that game managing only four tackles. Thomas played in the SEC against the best competition that college football has to offer and held up admirably.
What he needs to improve: The biggest area that Thomas needs to improve upon is his strength. Thomas has a tendency to give up ground to defenders, especially more powerful guys who utilize a bull-rush technique.
Where he fits: Thomas is most likely to be projected as a guard at the next level, at least until he addresses his strength issues. I anticipate Thomas battling Richie Incognito for a job at the Left Guard position, as Incoginto is not a great fit for the zone-blocking scheme that Philbin wants to run. I don't anticipate Thomas being able to unseat Incognito just yet, but I look for him to be in the starting lineup come his second year.
Highlight Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbkJrFl65lE
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Jamar Taylor
Now that all the selections have been made and the draft is over, it's time to reflect. Every person has their opinions on how their team did in the draft, and they're letting them be known. The likes of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock are coming out with their analysis on how they think every team did in the draft. I would like to take a slightly more in-depth approach, so in the next week I'm going to be taking a look at each of the players Miami drafted (with the exception of Dion Jordan, as I have already said plenty on that front). I'm going to take a look at what each player does well, what they need to improve upon, and where (if at all) they fit on the current roster. Today's player is Jamar Taylor, our second round draft choice from Boise State University.
What he does well: First and foremost, Taylor has adequate speed. He was clocked at last month's Combine at 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, which is on-par with the fastest of the wide receivers. He has the speed to run with anyone, which is important, especially if you make a mistake and have to recover quickly. Another plus for Taylor is that he's a zone coverage corner. He doesn't have great man-to-man skills, but Miami plays a zone scheme, so that should not be an issue. The biggest plus in Taylor's game though is his physicality. He's not afraid to mix it up with bigger, stronger receivers and loves to come up in run support. He plays the run quite well and that is something that I find invaluable in a corner.
Where he needs to improve: The biggest thing that I think Taylor needs to improve upon is his hands. Taylor has a tendency to drop a lot of interceptions when he has to use his hands away from his body. If he can manage to work on his pass catching ability, he should be a stand-out corner in this league. Along with his hands, he has also struggled at times with his tackling ability. He's not afraid to come up in run support, but once he's there, he doesn't always wrap up and finish the tackle. His open-field tackling skills are almost certainly the reason why he was still available to us in the second round instead of being a late first prospect.
Where he fits: Taylor, despite his few deficiencies, should be in the mix to be the starting corner opposite Brent Grimes. Miami is pretty thin at corner as it is, having Nolan Carroll and Richard Marshall as the only ones battling for that position. The acquisition of Taylor will almost assuredly mean that either Carroll or Marshall will be on their way out of Miami, and neither one of them will have to be relied upon to be a starter for us anymore. Taylor is a significant upgrade for us at the position and should be a week 1 starter.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh39T7YQ3VY
Coming up in tomorrow's post: Dallas Thomas
What he does well: First and foremost, Taylor has adequate speed. He was clocked at last month's Combine at 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, which is on-par with the fastest of the wide receivers. He has the speed to run with anyone, which is important, especially if you make a mistake and have to recover quickly. Another plus for Taylor is that he's a zone coverage corner. He doesn't have great man-to-man skills, but Miami plays a zone scheme, so that should not be an issue. The biggest plus in Taylor's game though is his physicality. He's not afraid to mix it up with bigger, stronger receivers and loves to come up in run support. He plays the run quite well and that is something that I find invaluable in a corner.
Where he needs to improve: The biggest thing that I think Taylor needs to improve upon is his hands. Taylor has a tendency to drop a lot of interceptions when he has to use his hands away from his body. If he can manage to work on his pass catching ability, he should be a stand-out corner in this league. Along with his hands, he has also struggled at times with his tackling ability. He's not afraid to come up in run support, but once he's there, he doesn't always wrap up and finish the tackle. His open-field tackling skills are almost certainly the reason why he was still available to us in the second round instead of being a late first prospect.
Where he fits: Taylor, despite his few deficiencies, should be in the mix to be the starting corner opposite Brent Grimes. Miami is pretty thin at corner as it is, having Nolan Carroll and Richard Marshall as the only ones battling for that position. The acquisition of Taylor will almost assuredly mean that either Carroll or Marshall will be on their way out of Miami, and neither one of them will have to be relied upon to be a starter for us anymore. Taylor is a significant upgrade for us at the position and should be a week 1 starter.
Highlight video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh39T7YQ3VY
Coming up in tomorrow's post: Dallas Thomas
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Indecision part II
Day three of the draft is filled with guys who, most likely, will only be special teams contributors or won't even make the team. As such, I don't know much about them and don't have anything intelligent to say about them. Much like yesterday, I'm putting the onus on you, the viewers, to make up your own minds and possibly tell me what I should think. Videos provided by YouTube and www.draftbreakdown.com.
Jelani Jenkins: http://draftbreakdown.com/jelani-jenkins-vs-louisiana-lafayette-2012
Dion Sims: http://draftbreakdown.com/dion-sims-vs-boise-state-2012-2
http://draftbreakdown.com/dion-sims-vs-northwestern-2012
Mike Gillislee: http://draftbreakdown.com/mike-gillislee-vs-tennessee-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/mike-gillislee-vs-lsu-2012
Caleb Sturgis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIblgpMjvcw
Don Jones: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYsQI_RzaOo
There you have it kids. Expect a complete analysis from me tomorrow when I've had more time to fully digest the entirety of our draft!
Jelani Jenkins: http://draftbreakdown.com/jelani-jenkins-vs-louisiana-lafayette-2012
Dion Sims: http://draftbreakdown.com/dion-sims-vs-boise-state-2012-2
http://draftbreakdown.com/dion-sims-vs-northwestern-2012
Mike Gillislee: http://draftbreakdown.com/mike-gillislee-vs-tennessee-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/mike-gillislee-vs-lsu-2012
Caleb Sturgis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIblgpMjvcw
Don Jones: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYsQI_RzaOo
There you have it kids. Expect a complete analysis from me tomorrow when I've had more time to fully digest the entirety of our draft!
Friday, April 26, 2013
Indecision
I am still undecided regarding my feelings about how Miami did on day two of the draft. I love the Jamar Taylor pick; I'm not so sure about Will Davis and Dallas Thomas. So, instead of a long post analyzing each pick, I have decided to post videos of each players highlights and let you decide for yourselves. All videos courtesy of www.draftbreakdown.com.
Jamar Taylor: http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-unlv-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-michigan-state-washington-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-byu-2012
Will Davis: http://draftbreakdown.com/will-davis-vs-san-jose-state-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/will-davis-vs-la-tech-2012
Dallas Thomas: http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-florida-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-south-carolina-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-alabama-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-nc-state-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-alabama-2011
Jamar Taylor: http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-unlv-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-michigan-state-washington-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/jamar-taylor-vs-byu-2012
Will Davis: http://draftbreakdown.com/will-davis-vs-san-jose-state-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/will-davis-vs-la-tech-2012
Dallas Thomas: http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-florida-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-south-carolina-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-alabama-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-nc-state-2012
http://draftbreakdown.com/dallas-thomas-vs-alabama-2011
Praying Mantis (part II)
In my haste to put up a post yesterday regarding the Dion Jordan pick, I failed to give any real supporting data for why I love the acquisition. Today I plan to rectify this oversight on my part. Jordan is a freakish athlete and gives the Miami Dolphins a lot of flexibility and an added dimension; pass rushing has been sorely missed in Miami for several years. Not only does Jordan improve the front line of our defense, but his ability to rush the passer will take some of the pressure off of our existing corners. Finally, Jordan has elite speed and length and as an outside linebacker at Oregon was asked to cover tight ends and slot receivers, and he did it well. This added aspect to Jordan helps our defense out even further, as Miami will face many of the elite tight ends this season. Let's take a look at what makes Jordan so special, from a numbers standpoint.
Let's start with Dion Jordan's size. Jordan is measured at 6'6 1/2". More than that though, his wingspan is an incredible 81.5 inches. That's more than three inches longer than a normal person of his height, which is already monstrous. This added length will give Jordan an incredible radius with which to deflect passes in his area, and will give him a massive advantage if and when he is asked to cover a smaller slot receiver. Furthermore, his hands measure an incredible 10" long. With hands this large, not only should he be able to be an effective coverage linebacker, but he should have the hand size and strength to be able to fight off the blocks when he is asked to line up at the defensive end position as a pass rusher.
Now let's move on to Jordan's speed and agility. Jordan ran the 40-yard dash in March's Combine at a blistering 4.6 seconds. This number was tied for third fastest at his listed position, defensive end, bested only by a little known prospect from UConn and by Barkevious Mingo from LSU. More than that though, it was also faster than any tight end likely to be drafted this year. In a test administered by ESPN's Sports Science, Jordan was able to run from one "heavy bag" to another, with one agility move in between, faster than anyone they tested other than Ziggy Ansah, and Ansah only beat him by 0.12 seconds. To further illustrate just how agile Jordan is, he was measured to have a rotational spin of 616°, which is the fastest the lab tested this season and approximately 25% faster than the spin of Dwight Freeny, who is widely considered to have the best spin move of any defensive player. Jordan also put up the fastest time of any defensive end in their test for rushing the passer and 10-yard acceleration, performing as well or better than any wide receiver they tested in this particular test. From a pure talent standpoint, Jordan is the best defensive end prospect since DeMarcus Ware, and if he lives up to his potential, will be the best pass rusher Miami has had since Jason Taylor.
The decision to draft Jordan looks even better when you consider the small price tag it took to acquire him and just how badly our division rivals did in their drafts yesterday. The Dolphins were able to acquire the third overall pick from the Oakland Raiders for only our first round pick (the #12 overall) and the first of our two second round picks. Just going by the value chart of the draft, Miami was able to steal this pick away from Oakland for more than 600 points below it's assessed value. The Bills made an extremely questionable decision to draft E.J. Manuel with their first round pick, which was gained by trading back and getting extra picks. While the decision to trade back was a good move for Buffalo, they immediately negated any good they did by drafting Manuel, a quarterback who many people had as the sixth rated quarterback in this draft. If Manuel was indeed who the Bills targeted as the guy they had to have, they could have easily waited until their pick in the second round, if not even the third. To draft this guy in the first round is a terrible mistake by the Bills. The Bills weren't the only ones in our division to make a questionable choice though.
The New York Jets made a poor choice of their own. They had two picks in the first 13, due to the recent trade of Darrelle Revis. With the first pick, they chose Dee Milliner, the corner from Alabama. While most "experts" had Milliner as the top ranked corner in the draft, there are several questions about him, most notable being his health (it was revealed that he had five surgeries while at Alabama and will not be available until training camp due to a recent shoulder surgery), and his hands. While working out at the Combine, Milliner exhibited a terrible ability to catch the ball. The entire time I watched Milliner perform his drills I had the thought "Man, his hands look worse than my legs!". This is not the kind of performance you want from a guy you draft to replace the best corner in the league. Then, with their second pick in the first round, the Jets inexplicably decided to take a defensive tackle, Sheldon Richardson from Missouri. Not only was Richardson not a position of need for the Jets, he was not even the best player at his position still on the board. Star Lotulelei was still available at this point, as was many people's #3 prospect Sharrif Floyd. This pick isn't bad because of the defensive tackles still available, however. It's a terrible pick because of the offensive players that were still available. The offense is a much more pressing need for the Jets, and many great players were still on the board. Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, and Robert Woods were all still available at much more pressing needs than defensive tackle. Three of those five; however, are still undrafted, so the Jets do have an opportunity to rectify their mistakes.
When you really sit back and analyze the move for Dion Jordan, it looks like the Dolphins have moved into a position to seriously challenge the New England Patriots for supremacy not only in the AFC East, but in the AFC as a whole. I can't wait to see what the next two days hold for the rest of our draft.
Let's start with Dion Jordan's size. Jordan is measured at 6'6 1/2". More than that though, his wingspan is an incredible 81.5 inches. That's more than three inches longer than a normal person of his height, which is already monstrous. This added length will give Jordan an incredible radius with which to deflect passes in his area, and will give him a massive advantage if and when he is asked to cover a smaller slot receiver. Furthermore, his hands measure an incredible 10" long. With hands this large, not only should he be able to be an effective coverage linebacker, but he should have the hand size and strength to be able to fight off the blocks when he is asked to line up at the defensive end position as a pass rusher.
Now let's move on to Jordan's speed and agility. Jordan ran the 40-yard dash in March's Combine at a blistering 4.6 seconds. This number was tied for third fastest at his listed position, defensive end, bested only by a little known prospect from UConn and by Barkevious Mingo from LSU. More than that though, it was also faster than any tight end likely to be drafted this year. In a test administered by ESPN's Sports Science, Jordan was able to run from one "heavy bag" to another, with one agility move in between, faster than anyone they tested other than Ziggy Ansah, and Ansah only beat him by 0.12 seconds. To further illustrate just how agile Jordan is, he was measured to have a rotational spin of 616°, which is the fastest the lab tested this season and approximately 25% faster than the spin of Dwight Freeny, who is widely considered to have the best spin move of any defensive player. Jordan also put up the fastest time of any defensive end in their test for rushing the passer and 10-yard acceleration, performing as well or better than any wide receiver they tested in this particular test. From a pure talent standpoint, Jordan is the best defensive end prospect since DeMarcus Ware, and if he lives up to his potential, will be the best pass rusher Miami has had since Jason Taylor.
The decision to draft Jordan looks even better when you consider the small price tag it took to acquire him and just how badly our division rivals did in their drafts yesterday. The Dolphins were able to acquire the third overall pick from the Oakland Raiders for only our first round pick (the #12 overall) and the first of our two second round picks. Just going by the value chart of the draft, Miami was able to steal this pick away from Oakland for more than 600 points below it's assessed value. The Bills made an extremely questionable decision to draft E.J. Manuel with their first round pick, which was gained by trading back and getting extra picks. While the decision to trade back was a good move for Buffalo, they immediately negated any good they did by drafting Manuel, a quarterback who many people had as the sixth rated quarterback in this draft. If Manuel was indeed who the Bills targeted as the guy they had to have, they could have easily waited until their pick in the second round, if not even the third. To draft this guy in the first round is a terrible mistake by the Bills. The Bills weren't the only ones in our division to make a questionable choice though.
The New York Jets made a poor choice of their own. They had two picks in the first 13, due to the recent trade of Darrelle Revis. With the first pick, they chose Dee Milliner, the corner from Alabama. While most "experts" had Milliner as the top ranked corner in the draft, there are several questions about him, most notable being his health (it was revealed that he had five surgeries while at Alabama and will not be available until training camp due to a recent shoulder surgery), and his hands. While working out at the Combine, Milliner exhibited a terrible ability to catch the ball. The entire time I watched Milliner perform his drills I had the thought "Man, his hands look worse than my legs!". This is not the kind of performance you want from a guy you draft to replace the best corner in the league. Then, with their second pick in the first round, the Jets inexplicably decided to take a defensive tackle, Sheldon Richardson from Missouri. Not only was Richardson not a position of need for the Jets, he was not even the best player at his position still on the board. Star Lotulelei was still available at this point, as was many people's #3 prospect Sharrif Floyd. This pick isn't bad because of the defensive tackles still available, however. It's a terrible pick because of the offensive players that were still available. The offense is a much more pressing need for the Jets, and many great players were still on the board. Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, and Robert Woods were all still available at much more pressing needs than defensive tackle. Three of those five; however, are still undrafted, so the Jets do have an opportunity to rectify their mistakes.
When you really sit back and analyze the move for Dion Jordan, it looks like the Dolphins have moved into a position to seriously challenge the New England Patriots for supremacy not only in the AFC East, but in the AFC as a whole. I can't wait to see what the next two days hold for the rest of our draft.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Praying Mantis
In a move that sent shock waves throughout the entire draft audience, and Miami Dolphins fans everywhere, the newest member of the team is the defensive end/outside linebacker from Oregon Dion Jordan. Miami executed a trade with the Oakland Raiders to move up to the third selection in order to take Jordan. While most people, fans and prognosticators alike, assumed that Miami was trading up to secure LT Lane Johnson, they decided to take the pass rusher instead. Initially I, and I think most fans, hated the move. The more I think about it though, the better the move looks for us.
There are a lot of options left for Miami to fill the left tackle position that we still desperately need. The trade for Branden Albert is still on the table. It looks like Kansas City and Miami are playing a game of chicken over Albert, with Miami hoping that KC will blink and accept a third round pick instead of the second that they currently are asking for. If the Chiefs stand firm though, there are still plenty of options available in free agency. Eric Winston could be signed by us to man the right side of the line, bumping Johnathan Martin over to the left. We could also sign the recently released Tyson Clabo to man the left, keeping Martin at RT, which is the position that he looked more comfortable at last season. Martin is not yet strong enough physically to be put on the left side, though he has reportedly bulked up in the off-season, gaining 15 pounds of muscle.
The move also does a lot to bolster our defense. For years the Dolphins have needed to add a pass rusher to put opposite Cam Wake. They tried to put Jared Odrick opposite him last season, but Odrick is more of an interior lineman. Now with the addition of Jordan, we can put Odrick at a more natural position for him, while also gaining a significant upgrade at the edge-rusher position. Not only does this move drastically improve our defense up front, it will also help us address our needs at corner. A defensive back's best friend is a good pass rush. A quarterback can't find the open man if he's flat on his back.
The move is also great when you consider what it took to make it. The Raiders were only able to swap firsts and add one of Miami's two second round picks in the deal. For comparison, the New England Patriots were able to ascertain a second, third, fourth, and seventh round pick from the Minnesota Vikings for their pick in the first round, which was the 29th pick in the first round. To say that Miami robbed the Oakland Raiders would be an understatement. I cannot fathom how, exactly, the Raiders let us get away with such a one-sided trade. We will have to see what Miami does tomorrow with their remaining second round and two third round picks, but it's clear with this move that we are serious about becoming contenders in the AFC.
There are a lot of options left for Miami to fill the left tackle position that we still desperately need. The trade for Branden Albert is still on the table. It looks like Kansas City and Miami are playing a game of chicken over Albert, with Miami hoping that KC will blink and accept a third round pick instead of the second that they currently are asking for. If the Chiefs stand firm though, there are still plenty of options available in free agency. Eric Winston could be signed by us to man the right side of the line, bumping Johnathan Martin over to the left. We could also sign the recently released Tyson Clabo to man the left, keeping Martin at RT, which is the position that he looked more comfortable at last season. Martin is not yet strong enough physically to be put on the left side, though he has reportedly bulked up in the off-season, gaining 15 pounds of muscle.
The move also does a lot to bolster our defense. For years the Dolphins have needed to add a pass rusher to put opposite Cam Wake. They tried to put Jared Odrick opposite him last season, but Odrick is more of an interior lineman. Now with the addition of Jordan, we can put Odrick at a more natural position for him, while also gaining a significant upgrade at the edge-rusher position. Not only does this move drastically improve our defense up front, it will also help us address our needs at corner. A defensive back's best friend is a good pass rush. A quarterback can't find the open man if he's flat on his back.
The move is also great when you consider what it took to make it. The Raiders were only able to swap firsts and add one of Miami's two second round picks in the deal. For comparison, the New England Patriots were able to ascertain a second, third, fourth, and seventh round pick from the Minnesota Vikings for their pick in the first round, which was the 29th pick in the first round. To say that Miami robbed the Oakland Raiders would be an understatement. I cannot fathom how, exactly, the Raiders let us get away with such a one-sided trade. We will have to see what Miami does tomorrow with their remaining second round and two third round picks, but it's clear with this move that we are serious about becoming contenders in the AFC.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Miami Dolphins Draft: Round 3
In the final installment of my three-part look into the Miami Dolphins draft strategy, I'm going to take a look at the third (and for me, final) round and how Miami can use this draft to address the final holes in their roster. As I am not yet a great evaluator, I am not going to attempt to evaluate the fourth through seventh rounds. Maybe next year.
The Dolphins still have one major hole in their roster, the cornerback position, and I have a feeling that this round is going to be where they fill it. They have already made a move in free agency to fill this hole, signing the former Atlanta Falcons corner Brent Grimes, but in today's pass-happy NFL, you need more than just one good corner. Like in round two, Miami has two selections in this round, and with their first selection I anticipate them waiting on the corner and again addressing their desire for a playmaker (as they did in round one by selecting Tyler Eifert. Or as my fiancee' would say Eiffel Tower). For the first selection in the third round, I have Miami drafting the wide receiver from Texas A&M, Ryan Swope.
Miami should be very familiar with Swope, as our offensive coordinator, Mike Sherman, was his coach at A&M for several years. In addition to the coaching staff familiarity, he also has a familiarity with our quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. Both Tannehill and Swope were wide receivers at Texas A&M during Swope's freshman year. After Tannehill moved to the quarterback position, they further developed a rapport as any good QB/WR tandem should. Not only should this draft selection look good to Miami from a familiarity standpoint, they should also love Swope for his speed. He was clocked at a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash in March's Combine. Any time you have the opportunity to add that kind of speed to your roster, a coach should be salivating, and I would be surprised if Miami doesn't at least contemplate this choice.
With their second selection in this round, this is where I see Miami again addressing their need for a cornerback. I have them taking David Amerson, corner from NC State in this slot. The knock on Amerson is that he doesn't project the skills necessary to play in man coverage at the next level. That shouldn't concern Philbin very much since he plays mostly zone coverage, which is an area that Amerson is quite skilled at. For readers who may not know the difference, in "man coverage" the cornerback covers a wide receiver no matter where he goes on the field. In a "zone coverage" the cornerback covers an area of the field, no matter which wide receiver/tight end/running back comes into his area. Amerson's perceived deficiencies in man coverage should not be a big concern for us, and we should be thankful that a corner of his pedigree will slip so far in the draft due to those deficiencies. A corner with Amerson's size and speed who has good man coverage ability would be a sure-fire first round pick.
Well folks, there you have it, my blueprint for success in this year's draft for my Miami Dolphins. I can't wait to sit down in front of my television in less than 24 hours to see just how everything plays out. With any hope, I'll be writing a post on Sunday bragging about just how well we drafted and how right I was in my predictions. We shall see.
The Dolphins still have one major hole in their roster, the cornerback position, and I have a feeling that this round is going to be where they fill it. They have already made a move in free agency to fill this hole, signing the former Atlanta Falcons corner Brent Grimes, but in today's pass-happy NFL, you need more than just one good corner. Like in round two, Miami has two selections in this round, and with their first selection I anticipate them waiting on the corner and again addressing their desire for a playmaker (as they did in round one by selecting Tyler Eifert. Or as my fiancee' would say Eiffel Tower). For the first selection in the third round, I have Miami drafting the wide receiver from Texas A&M, Ryan Swope.
Miami should be very familiar with Swope, as our offensive coordinator, Mike Sherman, was his coach at A&M for several years. In addition to the coaching staff familiarity, he also has a familiarity with our quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. Both Tannehill and Swope were wide receivers at Texas A&M during Swope's freshman year. After Tannehill moved to the quarterback position, they further developed a rapport as any good QB/WR tandem should. Not only should this draft selection look good to Miami from a familiarity standpoint, they should also love Swope for his speed. He was clocked at a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash in March's Combine. Any time you have the opportunity to add that kind of speed to your roster, a coach should be salivating, and I would be surprised if Miami doesn't at least contemplate this choice.
With their second selection in this round, this is where I see Miami again addressing their need for a cornerback. I have them taking David Amerson, corner from NC State in this slot. The knock on Amerson is that he doesn't project the skills necessary to play in man coverage at the next level. That shouldn't concern Philbin very much since he plays mostly zone coverage, which is an area that Amerson is quite skilled at. For readers who may not know the difference, in "man coverage" the cornerback covers a wide receiver no matter where he goes on the field. In a "zone coverage" the cornerback covers an area of the field, no matter which wide receiver/tight end/running back comes into his area. Amerson's perceived deficiencies in man coverage should not be a big concern for us, and we should be thankful that a corner of his pedigree will slip so far in the draft due to those deficiencies. A corner with Amerson's size and speed who has good man coverage ability would be a sure-fire first round pick.
Well folks, there you have it, my blueprint for success in this year's draft for my Miami Dolphins. I can't wait to sit down in front of my television in less than 24 hours to see just how everything plays out. With any hope, I'll be writing a post on Sunday bragging about just how well we drafted and how right I was in my predictions. We shall see.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Miami Dolphins Draft: Round 2
As I mentioned in yesterday's post on Miami's first round choice, Miami has some very important holes that need to be filled. We still need a left tackle to protect Ryan Tannehill's blindside. We need at least one cornerback to put on the opposite side of Brent Grimes. We also need an elite pass rusher that we can put opposite of Cam Wake to give us some much needed skill up front. For all the talk of Miami's corners being weak last season, a lot of those issues would have been moot had Miami had another threat rushing the passer. With their first pick in the draft, I have Miami addressing a concern that is not mentioned here, the need for a playmaker on offense. The addition of Tyler Eifert will give our passing game an added dimension in someone who can attack the seams and poses a big target in the red zone. With Dustin Keller coming off of an injury and being on a one-year contract, the need for a TE who can be a bit more of a guarantee would not be a terrible pick for us.
With that in mind, I feel like the second round is where Miami is going to do the bulk of their work in addressing their remaining issues. The Dolphins have two picks in this round and this is where most experts feel that this draft is strongest. It doesn't have a lot of elite talent at the top of the draft, but it's very, very strong in the middle rounds. The Dolphins first pick in this round is number 42, and this is where I see them addressing their desire for a pass rusher. I think that Miami should be targeting Damontre (or as my fiancee' says 'DemonTree') Moore, the defensive end from Texas A&M. Damontre has been making a name for himself in College Station, Texas since the days of Von Miller. In his first year at Texas A&M, while splitting time in the linebacking core with the aforementioned Miller, Moore managed to net 6.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. The next season, when Moore was moved into the starting lineup after Miller's departure, his numbers grew to 17.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. After that season, he was moved to defensive end with the arrival of new coach Kevin Sumlin. Rather than having a dip in his numbers due to the move and having to adjust to new responsibilities, reads, and techniques, Moore's numbers grew even more to 21 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks. Moore very clearly has all the talent in the world to be an elite pass rusher and if he's still on the board when Miami goes to make the pick, they should be stumbling over themselves to pick this guy up.
With the second of our two picks in this round, this is where I see Miami addressing their need for a left tackle by trading the pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for their LT Branden Albert. Albert will become expendable when KC drafts Luke Joeckel, as Albert is unwilling to move to the right side of the line and also wants to be paid as a premiere left tackle, which he is. As it stands right now, KC is holding out hope of getting a higher pick in the second round, but Miami is currently the only team talking to them about Albert and, as such, has all the leverage in the situation. A lot of fans have balked at the idea of paying Albert the money that he wants, saying that if they were going to pay someone that money why wasn't it Jake Long? The fact of the matter is that Albert is a better LT than Long was for us. He's ranked in the top 10 in PFF rankings for left tackles consistently and, while he does have some injury concerns with missing substantial time last season to a back injury, he's much healthier right now than Long has been. I don't see any reason for us to NOT pay Albert the money he is looking for. According to recent reports from NFLNetwork's Ian Rapoport, neither does Jeff Ireland.
Stay tuned tomorrow for my final installment of what I think the Dolphins should do to address the rest of their issues.
With that in mind, I feel like the second round is where Miami is going to do the bulk of their work in addressing their remaining issues. The Dolphins have two picks in this round and this is where most experts feel that this draft is strongest. It doesn't have a lot of elite talent at the top of the draft, but it's very, very strong in the middle rounds. The Dolphins first pick in this round is number 42, and this is where I see them addressing their desire for a pass rusher. I think that Miami should be targeting Damontre (or as my fiancee' says 'DemonTree') Moore, the defensive end from Texas A&M. Damontre has been making a name for himself in College Station, Texas since the days of Von Miller. In his first year at Texas A&M, while splitting time in the linebacking core with the aforementioned Miller, Moore managed to net 6.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. The next season, when Moore was moved into the starting lineup after Miller's departure, his numbers grew to 17.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. After that season, he was moved to defensive end with the arrival of new coach Kevin Sumlin. Rather than having a dip in his numbers due to the move and having to adjust to new responsibilities, reads, and techniques, Moore's numbers grew even more to 21 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks. Moore very clearly has all the talent in the world to be an elite pass rusher and if he's still on the board when Miami goes to make the pick, they should be stumbling over themselves to pick this guy up.
With the second of our two picks in this round, this is where I see Miami addressing their need for a left tackle by trading the pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for their LT Branden Albert. Albert will become expendable when KC drafts Luke Joeckel, as Albert is unwilling to move to the right side of the line and also wants to be paid as a premiere left tackle, which he is. As it stands right now, KC is holding out hope of getting a higher pick in the second round, but Miami is currently the only team talking to them about Albert and, as such, has all the leverage in the situation. A lot of fans have balked at the idea of paying Albert the money that he wants, saying that if they were going to pay someone that money why wasn't it Jake Long? The fact of the matter is that Albert is a better LT than Long was for us. He's ranked in the top 10 in PFF rankings for left tackles consistently and, while he does have some injury concerns with missing substantial time last season to a back injury, he's much healthier right now than Long has been. I don't see any reason for us to NOT pay Albert the money he is looking for. According to recent reports from NFLNetwork's Ian Rapoport, neither does Jeff Ireland.
Stay tuned tomorrow for my final installment of what I think the Dolphins should do to address the rest of their issues.
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